market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 07, 2025)

Josh

07 Jul 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

Tariff risk front and center: letters to as many as 100 countries will set tariffs on August 1 unless deals are struck by July 9, raising the odds of a fresh “tariff scare.”
US labor remains strong: June nonfarm payrolls surprised at +147 K (vs. 106 K cons.), unemployment at 4.1%, delaying near-term Fed easing bets.
Political pressure on the Fed persists: Trump’s call for a Powell investigation adds noise but is unlikely to force an immediate policy shift without softer data.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD: biased bearish on looming tariff escalation; a deal or delay could trigger a counter rally.
EUR/USD: mildly bullish—benefits from USD softness and safe-haven flows if global risk aversion spikes.
EUR/GBP: bullish on EUR—UK fiscal and political strains plus tariff fallout weigh on sterling.
AUD: bearish—RBA rate cut fully priced; limited upside unless a hawkish surprise emerges.
JPY & CHF: bullish as haven beneficiaries in case of renewed trade tensions.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold: bullish—tariff-driven safe-haven demand and eventual Fed dovish tilt underpin a move back above 3400.
Equities (S&P 500): cautious—vulnerable to tariff-induced sell-offs similar to April; upside if Trump secures more trade deals.
Crypto (BTC, SOL): bullish medium/long term—current positions remain, with targets unchanged as broader risk appetite governs near-term action.

Summary

The path of trade negotiations and tariff announcements by President Trump will dominate market moves this week, dictating USD direction and safe-haven flows.
Strong US labor data tempers Fed-cut expectations, but tariff jitters are likely to override rate-outlook dynamics for gold and yield differentials.
UK-specific uncertainties keep GBP soft, establishing EUR/GBP as a preferred cross.

Overall: Tariff developments are the key catalyst—expect USD weakness and strength in gold, JPY, and CHF amid heightened trade-war tensions, while equities and GBP remain vulnerable until clarity on deals emerges.

Market Summary (Jul 8, 2025)

We remain focused on escalating U.S. tariff threats that will soon hit as many as 100 nations, with Japan and South Korea already facing a 25% levy starting August 1 and others between 30–40%. The extension of the negotiation window to August 1 provides little comfort after 90

Market Summary (Jul 3, 2025)

We entered the day bracing for a tariff scare ahead of the July 9 deadline—and got exactly that with a 20% levy on Vietnam and talk of extending threats elsewhere—keeping USD under pressure and gold bid. A sharp ADP miss stoked expectations for sub-100k nonfarm payrolls, but today’

Market Summary (Jul 2, 2025)

We see growing US dollar pressure into the July 9 tariff deadline, amplified by renewed threats of 30–35% levies on Japan, which should underpin further gold upside once resistance near 3,370 is decisively cleared. The Fed’s data-dependent approach keeps rate-cut timing in question, so a dovish surprise

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 01, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Federal Reserve on hold, prioritizing potential tariff-driven inflation over the modest Core PCE uptick (2.7% YoY vs. 2.6% forecast). * US GDP disappointed but offset by solid jobless claims; overall mixed macro backdrop. * Tariff developments—US-Canada digital services tax saga and looming July 9 deadlines