market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 01, 2025)

Josh

01 Jul 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

Federal Reserve on hold, prioritizing potential tariff-driven inflation over the modest Core PCE uptick (2.7% YoY vs. 2.6% forecast).
US GDP disappointed but offset by solid jobless claims; overall mixed macro backdrop.
Tariff developments—US-Canada digital services tax saga and looming July 9 deadlines with UK/China—remain key risk catalysts.

Currencies & Forex Markets

EURUSD (Bullish): Medium-term uptrend intact and seasonally strong. A near-term USD-strength pullback (on trade-deal optimism) is expected and should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
USD (Bearish): Broad dollar weakness persists (DXY at post-March 2022 lows). Absent major data surprises, the downward trend is likely to continue.
USDNOK (Bearish): Technical momentum reversal in NOK, stabilized oil prices and anticipated trade-deal progress support further NOK gains, pressuring USDNOK lower.
GBP/FTSE (Bullish): Reduced UK ISA allowance should drive domestic equity inflows, underpinning the FTSE; GBP impact remains largely idiosyncratic and contained.
CAD (Neutral–Bearish): Canada’s rescinded DST eases bilateral tensions but near-term volatility around trade negotiations may cap CAD appreciation.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

S&P 500 (Bullish): Enters its strongest seasonal window (June 28–July 22), with a 16-year consecutive win streak and average +3.5% return. Dips to buy intra-week.
Gold (Bullish): Seasonal uptrend begins July 6; Fed-Trump rate sparring, rising US debt and attractive seasonality underpin medium-term upside. Awaiting technical breakout trigger.
Bitcoin (Bullish): Long positions intact; momentum and seasonality target ~120 k by mid-July.
Solana (Bullish): Small long allocation from ~243; looks to reclaim 200 and ultimately push toward 500.

Summary

Diverging Fed policy and tariff/trade-deal developments are keeping the USD soft, creating buy-the-dip setups in EURUSD and NOK.
US equities, gold and select cryptocurrencies benefit from strong seasonal patterns and supportive fundamentals.

Overall: A broadly bearish USD stance underlies bullish prospects in EURUSD, NOK, US equities, gold and major cryptos—with dips offering optimal entry points across these markets.

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Market Summary (Jul 2, 2025)

We see growing US dollar pressure into the July 9 tariff deadline, amplified by renewed threats of 30–35% levies on Japan, which should underpin further gold upside once resistance near 3,370 is decisively cleared. The Fed’s data-dependent approach keeps rate-cut timing in question, so a dovish surprise

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We’re focused on the May Core PCE release at 8:30 AM (consensus +0.1% MoM, Goldman +0.18%). Core PCE is largely baked in from recent CPI/PPI prints, so we’d need a surprise >0.2% to tilt markets risk-off—boosting the USD and pressuring equities

Market Summary (Jun 26, 2025)

We’re seeing Middle East de-escalation cool off safe-haven bids, putting short-term pressure on gold toward the 3 250–3 280 area even as the broader macro drivers (fiscal risks, tariffs, de-dollarization, central bank buying) remain bullish into year-end. The U.S. dollar looks set for another leg lower ahead