market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of August 18, 2025)

Josh

18 Aug 2025 — 2 min read

I’ve just returned after a brief two-week hiatus, so here’s a concise update on how markets have evolved in my absence.

Global Financial Condition Highlights

U.S. politics is a major driver: Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miran to the Fed signals a push for easier policy and a weaker dollar over the medium term.
U.S. inflation remains “sticky,” with a surprisingly hot PPI undermining hopes for an imminent Fed cut and reinforcing near-term dollar strength.
The Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska (and follow-on discussions with Zelensky and EU leaders) remains the biggest wildcard: any signs of de-escalation could ease safe-haven demand; disappointment will fuel further haven flows.

Currencies & Forex Markets

EUR USD: Mixed near term. Long-term bias remains bullish (dollar-weakness theme), but hot U.S. PPI and Friday’s geopolitical event have sown caution. We await clear post-meeting direction into next week.
USD JPY: Continued pressure bearish USDJPY as markets price Fed cuts alongside eventual BoJ tightening. The broader trend favors a stronger yen.
USD CHF: Swiss franc retains safe-haven appeal amid prolonged U.S.–Russia tensions; an upside move in CHF vs. USD is likely to persist.
EUR GBP: The pound’s relative outperformance in risk rallies keeps EURGBP under pressure, but positioning is modest ahead of U.K. data.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold: The long-term thesis is bullish—weaker dollar, persistent geopolitics, and stagflation risks—but short term remains range-bound beneath a corrective wedge. A decisive upside break would signal a renewed leg higher.
U.S. Equities (S&P 500, NASDAQ): Despite tariff and geopolitical jitters, stocks remain supported by resilient earnings and margin tailwinds from a softer dollar. The immediate risk is a pullback if inflation surprises again or geopolitics deteriorate.
Crypto (Bitcoin, Solana): Long-term bullish narrative intact; positioning remains modest (10% allocation each) with upside targets of ~$140 k on Bitcoin and ~$500 on Solana.

Summary

The overarching theme is a tug of war between sticky U.S. inflation—favoring dollar strength in the near term—and political pressures for easier Fed policy, which should ultimately weigh on the dollar and lift gold.
Geopolitical developments this week (Alaska follow-ons, EU engagement) will likely dictate directional bias into early September across FX and gold.

Overall: markets remain fundamentally skewed toward a weaker dollar and higher gold over the medium term, but we need clarity on inflation data and geopolitical progress before committing to new positions.

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 15, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed on the cusp of rate cuts despite core inflation holding near 3 %, underscoring a stagflation backdrop (weakening labor market vs supply-driven price pressures). * Rising geopolitical tensions—US threats of broad tariffs on China and tougher sanctions on Russia—are shifting sentiment toward risk-off. * Soft PPI

Market Analysis - 2025-09-12

We’re seeing a clear stagflation backdrop: PPI and core CPI prints are in-line but labor-market data disappointed, while University of Michigan sentiment undershot and 5-year inflation expectations jumped. This mix virtually guarantees Fed rate cuts next week despite core inflation sitting above 3%, keeping downward pressure on the US

Market Summary (Sep 11, 2025)

We’ve seen yesterday’s PPI core at 2.8% YoY (vs. 3.5% expected) and headline at 2.6% YoY (vs. 3.3%), which pointed to a soft CPI—yet today’s headline and core CPI matched forecasts at 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, while initial jobless

Market Summary (Sep 10, 2025)

We’ve seen a sharp downside surprise in US PPI, with headline printing 2.6% YoY vs. 3.3% expected and core at 2.8% vs. 3.5%. Given the historical 80–90% correlation between PPI and CPI surprises, we’re positioned for tomorrow’s CPI to undershoot, sharply increasing