market outlook
We remain focused on three key themes. First, a very dovish RBNZ decision—with two officials voting for a 50 bp cut—has shifted our bias against the New Zealand dollar, leaving NZD crosses vulnerable. Second, gold’s daily bullish-engulfing pattern and wedge break signal upside, but two looming catalysts—
market outlook
We see geopolitics remaining tense after Ukraine’s outright rejection of Russia’s territorial-freeze proposal, leaving markets without a clear peace catalyst. Gold is consolidating within its corrective wedge, struggling to rally until a decisive political or macro surprise materializes, while equities and oil would likely rally on any unexpected
market outlook
I’ve just returned after a brief two-week hiatus, so here’s a concise update on how markets have evolved in my absence. Global Financial Condition Highlights * U.S. politics is a major driver: Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miran to the Fed signals a push for easier policy and
market outlook
We saw US labor data come in far weaker than expected, with July nonfarm payrolls at 73 K versus the 104 K forecast and May/June both revised down by roughly 230 K combined. Fed funds futures now price a roughly 75 % chance of a 25 bp cut in September,
market outlook
We see a broad dovish tilt from major central banks weighing on bond yields and the U.S. dollar, while equities—led by tech—continue to grind higher on improving growth forecasts. Disinflationary signals from our most authoritative sources have driven 10-year Treasury yields back below 4.00%, supporting rate-sensitive
market outlook
We expect today’s FOMC to lean dovish—two dissenters and Fed guidance toward a September cut should weigh on the USD and lift gold, which remains anchored above the $3,200/oz support level. Secondary 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian goods, plus still-high U.S. trade levies
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade tensions eased as the US-Japan deal (15% reciprocal tariffs; $550 bn investment) and a 15% US-EU tariff compromise were finalized, removing major sources of uncertainty. * Fed poised to adopt a dovish tone at Wednesday’s FOMC, laying groundwork for a September rate cut; President Trump’
market outlook
We’re seeing a risk-on tilt as US–EU trade talks edge toward a deal, reducing tariff uncertainty. That dynamic is weighing on safe havens—gold may test its recent support just above 3 300 before resuming an uptrend, and the yen is under pressure as BoJ policy stays dovish
market outlook
We’re seeing a clear shift into risk-on mode after the US–Japan trade deal removed significant tariff uncertainty and paved the way for stronger equity, commodity and high-beta FX demand (AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP). At the same time, a dovish Bank of Japan and political turnover in Tokyo are
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed leadership uncertainty – persistent rumors around Chair Powell’s potential dismissal keep the USD under pressure and bolster safe-haven demand. * Softer US producer inflation – June core PPI undershot forecasts, reinforcing a dovish tilt for monetary policy. * Geopolitical tensions – tariff threats on EU goods and continued Ukraine
market outlook
We continue to view gold as fundamentally bullish amid lingering Fed uncertainty and mixed U.S. data, with the metal holding above its higher-timeframe support trendline and bumping up against near-term resistance around $3,350. While short-term chop may persist without a fresh catalyst, a decisive breakout would reinforce the
market outlook
We saw another dovish PPI print yesterday (core PPI YoY 2.6% vs. 2.7% expected), reinforcing the view that underlying inflation is cooling and limiting the risk of another Fed hike. At the same time, persistent rumors that the Fed Chair could be dismissed remain a key tail risk.