market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US credit downgrade and massive fiscal expansion (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) are eroding confidence in the dollar and bond markets. * Capital is rotating out of US assets – bonds down, equities soft, USD broadly weaker. * Asia-led dollar selling continues to confirm a “sell USD” regime. Currencies &
market outlook
US markets remain under pressure as a credit downgrade and a $3.8 trillion tax-cut bill have sparked capital outflows: bonds and the dollar are down, equities choppy with a slight bearish tilt. Asia-led dollar selling persists, driving gold to fresh highs and bitcoin to all-time peaks as investors seek
market outlook
The US credit-rating downgrade last Friday has triggered broad dollar weakness—USD, bonds and equities are all under pressure—fueling a fresh leg higher in gold (now making new hourly highs) and a rally in EUR/USD toward the 1.18-1.20 area. China’s recent easing of bullion-inflow rules
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US credit rating cut from AAA to Aa1 (Moody’s) has reintroduced credit risk into Treasuries, fueling safe-haven demand. * Ukraine-Russia direct talks failed to yield a ceasefire; fresh European/US sanctions look imminent, adding to risk-off pressures. * Soft US inflation prints (CPI/PPI below expectations; University
market outlook
US PPI surprised to the downside, piling more dovish data under the Fed’s tightening cycle and keeping the dollar on the defensive; USDCHF trades near flat while EUR/USD dips remain well supported. Gold has broken market structure with a technical long signal at 3216 targeting 3438, reflecting safe-haven
market outlook
Dollar saw a modest pullback on soft CPI data, but remains on track for further short-term strength against EUR, CHF and JPY amid optimism over US–China trade-talk extensions; longer term Jay projects a 10–15% dollar decline as President Trump leans toward rate cuts and FX “rebalancing.” Equities are
market outlook
The market is riding a risk-on wave after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause (10% on U.S. exports to China, 30% on Chinese exports to the U.S.), lifting equities and the dollar while pressuring gold and defensive FX (CHF, JPY). Fed speakers and
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed remains hawkish on the margin: Powell’s “wait and see” keeps rate-cut bets at bay, underpinning USD strength. * U.S.-China trade deal struck in Geneva over the weekend—both sides agreed to deep tariff cuts (China to 10% for 90 days; U.S. to
market outlook
Over recent sessions, the financial markets have been driven by positive trade developments between the US and China, with expectations of tariffs being reduced significantly—potentially from 145% to around 50%—which bolsters risk-on sentiment. This has strengthened the dollar, supported equities, and boosted commodities like oil and cryptocurrencies, notably
market outlook
The markets are currently bullish on risk assets, driven by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and indications of a potential tariff reduction from the US. Trump has softened his stance, hinting at a significant decline in tariffs from around 160% toward a more manageable level, which supports risk-on sentiment.
market outlook
Macro markets remain cautiously bullish with a focus on US-China trade developments and geopolitical tensions. The USD is supported by reassurances that Federal Reserve Chair Powell won’t be ousted, keeping gold under pressure short-term despite a structurally bullish outlook driven by late-2024/early-2025 central bank gold demand. Recent inflation
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * The risk-on sentiment persists, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, especially with India and potentially South Korea and Japan, supporting equities and risk assets. * US economic data remains weak short-term, but markets are forward-looking, anticipating trade deal progress to lift macro outlook by mid-year. * Inflation in