We’re seeing a clear dovish tilt across G10 as UK labour data disappointed—unemployment climbed to 5% and wage growth cooled—cementing market bets on a BoE rate cut in December and weighing on GBP, notably versus EUR. In the US, the government shutdown has shown up in private‐
We view the end of the US government shutdown as removing a key Fed risk, boosting the odds of a December rate cut and softening the dollar—a view reinforced by alternative data pointing to a roughly 50k decline in nonfarm payrolls. Gold is benefiting from the dovish tilt, while
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US government shutdown has ended, removing a key uncertainty that had forced the Fed to “pause.” * Fed-funds futures now price in roughly a 66% chance of a December rate cut, up from ~63% last week. * Pending rescheduling of delayed labor‐market data (unemployment claims, September NFP)
We’re seeing yield-cut bets build across both the Fed and the BOE this morning. Fed speakers (notably the more dovish members) have doubled down on a December rate cut despite mixed data, keeping our dollar supported in the near term but capping further gains until the cut probability is
We’re seeing a firmer US dollar after ADP and ISM services surprised to the upside, pushing back on December rate-cut bets and keeping DXY near 100.2. EUR/USD is capped around 1.1544–1.1550 and looks set to roll over, while GBP/USD remains vulnerable amid a